Elizabeth Warren Overtakes Joe Biden In Democratic Presidential Race: IBD/TIPP Poll

Elizabeth Warren has taken a narrow lead over Joe Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, the October IBD/TIPP Poll found. Both candidates continue to lead in a head-to-head matchup against President Trump, though Biden had a more comfortable lead, outside the margin of error.


Warren Vs. Biden Race

Elizabeth Warren had the support of 27%, with Joe Biden backed by 26% and Bernie Sanders a distant third at 10%. Support for South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg climbed to 7% from 5%. No other candidate polled more than 3%.

The October IBD/TIPP Poll showed continued momentum for Warren. Last month’s poll had shown support for Warren jumping to 24% from 17%. Meanwhile, Biden’s support saw further erosion, after slipping to 28% in September from 30% in August.

Sanders, whose nomination prospects could suffer after his heart attack last week, saw support fall after registering 12% the prior two months. Sanders has said he expects to participate in the Oct. 15 debate.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden is lagging in fundraising, attracting just $15.2 million in the third quarter. Elizabeth Warren raised $24.6 million and Bernie Sanders $25.3 million.

Warren Vs. Trump And Biden Vs. Trump

The October IBD/TIPP Poll found Warren edging Trump by 2 points, 48% to 46%, even thinner than her 49%-46% lead in September.

Biden remains the top-tier Democrat with the best chance of beating Trump, but his lead narrowed to 7 points from 12 in September. The October poll showed Biden beating Trump 51% to 44%. He led 54%-42% in September.

Sanders led Trump 49% to 45%, unchanged from September.

Among independents, Trump led Warren, 49% to 43%, and Sanders, 48% to 44%. Biden had a narrow 46%-45% edge, but that was a big comedown from his 55%-37% lead among independents in September.

Joe Biden Caught In Ukraine Crossfire

Joe Biden’s election prospects appeared to take a hit from allegations hurled by Trump that are at the center of the House Democrats’ impeachment probe. A loose transcript of a July 25 call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed a whistleblower’s claim that Trump asked him to investigate Biden and son Hunter’s dealings in the country in 2016.

The October IBD/TIPP Poll found 57%-37% support for a Justice Department investigation of Biden and his son regarding their actions in Ukraine and China.

By comparison, Americans supported the House impeachment inquiry, 55%-44%. Half of Americans said Trump’s Ukraine actions are an impeachable offense, vs. 46% who say they are not. Still, Trump’s job approval rating rose 4 points to 43%, even as his biggest political scandal erupted.

So far there is no evidence of wrongdoing on Biden’s part for helping to push out a Ukrainian prosecutor with a weak record in taking on corruption. But Republicans are pointing the finger at the former vice president, whose son Hunter was being paid $50,000 per month at the time for serving on the board of Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company. The owner of the company had previously been under investigation. Hunter Biden also had ties with an investment firm that raised funds in China.

Yet the appearance isn’t great for Biden, who had been known through his career for his working-class roots and commuting via Amtrak.

Elizabeth Warren Galvanizes Liberals

The October IBD/TIPP Poll provided further evidence that Warren has displaced Sanders as the candidate of the far left. Among self-described liberals, Warren had the support of 38%. Biden came next with 14%, then Sanders with 11%.

Among white voters, Warren led Biden 33% to 20%. Biden led Warren 44% to 16% among black and Hispanic voters. Biden also is the clear leader among conservative Democrats (45% to Warren’s 6%) and self-described moderate Democrats (35%-21%).

Among Democratic investors, 31% back Elizabeth Warren vs. 23% for Joe Biden and just 6% for Bernie Sanders. That comes despite reports that big Democratic donors on Wall Street say they wouldn’t support Warren, who backs a wealth tax and a Big Tech breakup, along with other sweeping measures. Democratic investors likely skew toward upscale, educated white liberals, the core of Warren’s support.

The IBD/TIPP Poll reflects responses from 900 adults contacted via mobile phones and landlines from Sept. 26 to Oct. 3 and carries a 3.3-point margin of error. Polling for the Democratic presidential nomination includes a subset of 341 Democrats and independents who lean Democrat. Ukraine-related questions reflect the views of a subset of 748 people following the recent news about Trump’s call with the Ukrainian president.

Month Biden Warren Sanders Harris Buttigieg
August 30% 17% 12% 11% 6%
September 28% 24% 12% 6% 5%
October 26% 27% 10% 3% 7%
Source: IBD/TIPP Poll

Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for insight on economic policy and financial markets.


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